The aim of the cross-sectional project is to elaborate the spatial, temporal and economic risk for vector-borne zoonoses in Germany and Europe.
Hazard maps: Ecologically suitable areas for vectors and pathogens are modelled using spatial and temporal high-resolution species occurrences, climate and remote sensing data. Additionally, the distribution of host species and gates of entry of vectors or pathogens are taken into account.
Vulnerability analysis: By the means of vulnerability indicators (e.g. human population density, livestock) areas of high-expected high vulnerability are highlighted.
Risk maps: The combination of hazard maps and vulnerability analysis shows the areas at high-risk for the vector-borne disease transmission. A temporal analysis will be carried out, which shows the windows of opportunity for disease transmission. In addition, the economic effects associated with a possible outbreak are modelled.
Capacity building: Young scientists can acquire new skills and knowledge in risk assessment of vector-borne diseases during a science school, which will be offered at the University of Bayreuth. The developed methods and examples are provided on an online platform.
Latest publication: Tjaden, N; Suk, JE; Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Beierkuhnlein, C; Semenza, JC: Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century, Scientific Reports, 7(3813) (2017)
Coordination: Dr. Stephanie Thomas (University of Bayreuth, Department of Biogeography)
Funding period: 24 months
Project start: October 2016
Funding organisation: BMBF