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Cross section project: Spatial, temporal and economic risk assessment of vector-borne zoonoses

The aim of the cross-sectional project is to determine the spatial, temporal and economic risk for vector-borne zoonoses in Germany and Europe.

  • Hazard maps: Ecological suitability and occurrence probabilities of vectors and pathogens will be modelled by means of spatially and temporally high-resolution occurrence, climate and remote sensing data - including the distribution of host organisms and possible entry sites of vectors or pathogens.
  • Vulnerability analysis: Areas are identified for which high vulnerability is expected due to specific vulnerability indicators (e.g. population density, animal population).
  • Risk maps: The combination of hazard maps and vulnerability analysis shows high risk areas where high vulnerability meets high vulnerability. In addition to the spatial analysis of the risk, a temporal analysis will be carried out to identify the appropriate time windows for a transfer. In addition, the economic effects associated with an outbreak will be modelled.

The knowledge gained on the identification of zoonotic risk areas is passed on to young scientists in a Science School with the involvement of international lecturers. The newly developed methods and practical examples will be made available on an online platform.

Latest publication: Tjaden, N; Suk, JE; Fischer, D; Thomas, S M; Beierkuhnlein, C; Semenza, JC: Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century, Scientific Reports, 7(3813) (2017)

Coordination: Dr. Stephanie Thomas (University of Bayreuth, Department of Biogeography)

Funding period: 24 months

Project start: October 2016

Funding organization: BMBF