Within the framework of the cross-sectional project, intensive cooperation between physicians in registration authorities, natural scientists, computer scientists and modellers enabled the development of a prediction model for hantavirus infections in the various administrative districts of Baden-Württemberg, which will be used from autumn 2014 on the website of the Baden-Württemberg State Health Office. The model is based on beech mast, climate and geodata as well as demographic data and was retrospectively evaluated based on the number of human infections reported and the infection rate in trapped rodents. An interactive map showing the forecasts for the individual districts as well as individual parameters such as tree population, beech mast and the occurrence of different berry species over the years is available at www.hanta-vorhersage.de Final adjustments are still underway to optimise the display.
The model will continue to be evaluated in the future in order to analyse how far adjustments are necessary and whether the weighting of the parameters is correct. Follow-up projects are planned. In addition, the model is to be presented to the federal-state working group (of the public health service (ÖGD)) in order to examine under which circumstances it can also be adapted for other federal states. The adaptation depends above all on whether the necessary data on the individual prediction parameters are available in the other federal states in the same quality and quantity as in Baden-Württemberg.
The cross-sectional project is a successful example of the networking of research and OGD in the field of zoonosis research.
Dr. Christiane Wagner-Wiening (State Health Office of Baden-Württemberg)
Dr. Rainer Ulrich (Friedrich Loeffler Institute, NaÜPa-Net)
Forest Research Institute BW (FVA-BW)
RKI Network of Consulting Laboratories for Zoonoses
Epimos, GmbH (Prof. Dr. Eichner, Brockmann)
ExploSys, GmbH (Dr. Schwehm)
Stauss und Turni (Dr. Turni), expert's office
Project duration: 01.02.2012 - 31.07.2014 (after expenditure-neutral extension)
Modelling the distribution of hantavirus infections in 2019 - Source: www.hanta-vorhersage.de